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Angels need offense for second-half AL West race

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 -

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) -After Torii Hunter spent the past 48 hours shaking hands, hosting parties and generally serving as the Angels' unofficial host of the All-Star game, the Los Angeles outfielder was more than ready to get back to his day job.

``I had about 30 family members here, and they don't believe in sleep,'' Hunter said. ``I was up at 7 in the morning every day. I thought this was the All-Star break, man.''

While the All-Star festivities were a big success, the Angels' quest for a fourth straight AL West title could be in trouble if Hunter and his teammates don't get it going soon. The Angels, who open the second half at home with a four-game series against Seattle, lost six of seven leading into the break, getting outscored 44-14 on a trip to Chicago and Oakland.

``Hopefully guys weren't even watching the game,'' Hunter said Tuesday night after going 0 for 2 at Angel Stadium. ``Hopefully they were just relaxing on the beach, taking a step back from the game, and getting ready to come back.''

Los Angeles entered the break at 47-44, trailing first-place Texas by 4 1/2 games in the AL West. The deficit would have been even worse if the Rangers hadn't lost four straight to lowly Baltimore before the break.

Hunter is the Angels' clubhouse leader, but he also has been the most potent offensive force in a lineup that could use a little more pop - either through improved efforts or a trade.

After Los Angeles led the majors in multiple offensive categories for long stretches of last season, the bats aren't helping out a solid starting rotation. The Angels fielded a lineup with nine .300 hitters in August last season, but nobody on their current roster is hitting .300.

``We have to all come together,'' said Hunter, batting .298 with 15 homers and 62 RBIs. ``Some guys need to step up. I need to step up. We can make it happen. Every team has that dry spell. We had it in the last week, but we can get back.''

The Angels have won five of the past six division titles, but this season hasn't seemed terribly promising for a lineup that still hasn't recovered from the offseason departure of leadoff hitter Chone Figgins and slugger Vladimir Guerrero.

So far, the Angels' season has been most memorable for two reasons: The All-Star game, and one of the wackiest serious injuries in baseball history.

Kendry Morales, the Angels' slugging Cuban first baseman, was lost for the year when he broke his leg jumping on home plate after a game-ending grand slam against Seattle on May 29.

The injury will go down in sports infamy, but it isn't making the Angels laugh just yet.

``The break came at a good time,'' said ace Jered Weaver, who made his first All-Star game but wasn't allowed to pitch because he had been on the mound last Sunday in Oakland. ``The injury to Kendry hurt us from a lot of standpoints. A lot of guys are playing more than they normally would have, so hopefully the break gave everybody a chance to get recharged.''

Catcher Mike Napoli has filled in capably at first base for Morales, producing 14 homers and 37 RBIs. Others haven't been so sharp: Veteran slugger Bobby Abreu is batting just .257 with 10 homers and 47 RBIs, while Hideki Matsui has been mostly unimpressive in his first season on the West Coast. The reigning World Series MVP is batting just .252 with mediocre power numbers as the replacement for Guerrero, who rebounded to make the AL All-Star team with Texas.

Manager Mike Scioscia knows the Angels likely need reinforcements on offense to keep up with the Rangers, who dramatically improved their pitching by acquiring Cliff Lee from Seattle. Yet Los Angeles has never been a team to loot its farm system for a desperate postseason run, and general manager Tony Reagins seems unlikely to change that philosophy.

``Our lineup needs to get deeper,'' Scioscia said. ``If there's someone out there who can make us deeper, Tony is going to act on it. The offensive end obviously has been a concern.''

Scioscia credits his starting pitching for the Angels' ability to ``hold our heads above water.'' Indeed, all five starters in his solid rotation have won at least six games, with Weaver (8-5, 3.20 ERA), newcomer Joel Pineiro (9-6, 3.95) and Ervin Santana (8-7, 3.76) all posting strong numbers.

``We can get it together,'' Hunter said. ``It's still July. This team knows what time it is.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.


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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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