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Braves send Hanson to hill in finale with Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

04/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Heyward has already made his presence felt during his very brief time in the major leagues. Another of the Atlanta Braves' young phenoms will be trying to make a quick impact when the team concludes its season-opening three-game series with the visiting Chicago Cubs tonight at Turner Field.

Taking the mound for Atlanta this evening will be Tommy Hanson, who like Heyward, broke into the majors amidst a ton of hype when he debuted last season. The 23-year-old certainly didn't disappoint, as he won his first five decisions in an Atlanta uniform and finished the year with an 11-4 record and a sensational 2.89 earned run average. The gifted right-hander also struck out 116 batters in 127 innings and allowed two runs or fewer in 14 of his 21 starts.

Hanson, who will be taking on the Cubs for the first time, went 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 Turner Field starts during his rookie campaign. The Braves had an 8-3 record in those contests.

He'll be attempting to give Atlanta a sweep of this set, with Heyward playing a key role in each of the team's first two victories. The 20-year-old outfielder smacked a three-run homer in his first big league at-bat during Monday's 16-5 shellacking of the Cubs, then delivered an RBI double that helped lift the Braves to a 3-2 decision in Wednesday's second game.

Heyward, rated the game's No. 1 overall prospect by Baseball America in the preseason, has gone 3-for-8 with five RBI over the first two games of this series.

One of the longtime Braves turned out to be the hero in Wednesday's win, however, as veteran third baseman Chipper Jones belted a two-run homer off John Grabow in the bottom of the eighth that put Atlanta up by one.

"I took a chance [with the count] 3-1 that [Grabow] was going to throw a changeup, and I got a pitch up in the zone and put a great swing on it," said Jones of the blast.

Billy Wagner, signed over the winter to serve as Atlanta's closer, picked up his first save in a Braves uniform with a scoreless ninth. Peter Moylan got the win after keeping the Cubs off the scoreboard in the top of the eighth.

Chicago had taken a 2-1 edge with two unearned runs off Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens in the fifth, with Alfonso Soriano scoring on a bases-loaded error by Braves first baseman Troy Glaus and Ryan Theriot following with a go-ahead sacrifice fly.

Cubs starter Ryan Dempster was in line for the win after limiting the Braves to just one run and three hits over the first six innings. He struck out nine Atlanta hitters before exiting.

Chicago's Randy Wells, also coming off a very good first full year in the majors, will take the mound for the visitors in tonight's series finale. The right-hander was one of the few bright spots of the Cubs' disappointing 2009 season, putting together a 12-10 record with a 3.05 ERA in 27 starts after being called up from Triple-A Iowa in early May. He surrendered two or less runs in 17-of-27 outings following the promotion.

One of Wells' wins came against the Braves in Chicago last July, with the Illinois native firing six innings of two-run ball. He also pitched well in a no-decision at Turner Field a month earlier, holding Atlanta to a pair of runs -- one earned -- and only two hits over a strong seven frames.

Atlanta won four of the six 2009 meetings between these teams and took two of three from the Cubs in Chicago's lone visit to Turner Field.


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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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