03/25/2010 - Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Owners of a 22-game win streak, the Butler Bulldogs take their act to EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah tonight where they will clash with the Syracuse Orange in the round of 16 in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

The fifth-seeded Bulldogs are appearing in the "Sweet 16" for the fourth time in program history, and the third time in the last eight years. Butler, which hasn't lost a game since bowing to UAB (67-57) in non-conference action back on December 22nd, ran the table in the Horizon League with an 18-0 mark and won the league title going away. After capturing the conference tournament with a 70-45 thrashing of Wright State, the Bulldogs set their sights on a bigger prize and defeated UTEP in the first round of the 72nd annual NCAA Tournament by a score of 77-59. Last Saturday, the team slipped by a surprising Murray State squad with a narrow 54-52 final to advance in the West Regional.

Playing away from home hasn't been a problem for Butler this season as the team led all of Division I with a mark of 12-1 (.923) and was one of only two teams at that level to suffer just a single road setback, the other being Syracuse (8-1), which lost to Louisville in the regular-season finale at Freedom Hall (78-68).

Speaking of the top-seeded Orange, they advanced this far for the 19th time in school history and have a tremendous 52-32 record in the event overall. The program with the fifth-most wins (1,783) in Division I history, Syracuse now needs just one more win to match its all-time record for victories in a single season at 31. Since losing back-to-back games to Louisville and Georgetown to close out the regular season and bow out of the Big East Conference Tournament, respectively, the squad has defeated Vermont (79-56) in the first round of this tourney and also taken care of Gonzaga (87-65) rather easily in the season round last weekend.

With respect to the all-time series between these two teams, this is just the second meeting following a 66-65 overtime win for Syracuse in the Carrier Dome during the second round of the 2002 NIT.

The winner of this clash advances to the regional finals on Saturday where it will meet either Xavier or Kansas State for the right to play at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in the Final Four next weekend.

Murray State gave the Bulldogs a run for their money last weekend in the second round of the tournament, pushing the game to just a two-point decision even as Danero Thomas came up scoreless and the starting five for the Racers combined for a mere 27 points. The Bulldogs put four players in double figures as Ronald Nored accounted for a game-high 15 points and handed out six assists, followed by Gordon Hayward with 12 points and seven rebounds. Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley chipped in 11 and 10 points, respectively, as the team slipped by with a mere 36 percent shooting from the field and 11-of-19 shooting at the free-throw line. Through 34 games, in which he has played all but one, Hayward is both the leading scorer and rebounder for the Bulldogs with his 15.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per contest, adding 61 assists to make himself a threat in that department as well. Mack (14.1 ppg), Matt Howard (12.0 ppg) and Veasley (10.2 ppg) are all critical pieces to the offensive puzzle for a Butler squad that spreads the wealth in order to come up with nearly 70 ppg. More importantly, the defense has been top-notch this season by limiting opponents to 59.8 ppg, a number that the squad bettered in facing Murray State last weekend.

Gonzaga was severely overmatched by the Orange last weekend as Syracuse set a team record for three-point field goals in an NCAA Tournament game with a total of 12 in the lopsided decision for the squad. Wes Johnson used his 4- of-6 shooting beyond the arc to achieve his career-best 31 points and added to his dominating effort by also clearing 14 rebounds, making him the sort of inside-outside threat that opponents fear. Also scoring in double figures for the Orange were Andy Rautins with 24 points and Brandon Triche who accounted for 24 and 13 points, respectively, as the former made good on 5-of-9 attempts out on the perimeter as well. While Syracuse was hitting 12-of-25 from three- point range, Gonzaga was struggling with just three conversions in 21 chances from the outside. Johnson, the Big East Player of the Year and a finalist for both the Naismith and Oscar Robertson trophies, is averaging a double-double thus far in the tourney with his 24.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. But perhaps even more startling is the fact that he has made good on 63.6 percent of his three-point tries, the team hitting 22-of-27 chances compared to Vermont and Gonzaga which combined for a mere 8-of-43. The team will need another huge effort by Johnson and Rautins again tonight since it was announced on Wednesday that center Arinze Onuaku will again miss the game due to a right quadriceps injury.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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